OVID, Tristia, 1, 4, 5 - 16

Me miserum ! Quantis increscunt aequora ventis,
eruta ex imis fervet arena vadis !
Monte nec inferior prorae puppive recurvae
insilit et pictos verberat unda deos.
Pinea texta sonant, pulsi stridore rudentes,
ingemit et nostris ipsa carina malis.
Navita confessus gelidum pallore timorem,
iam sequitur victus, non regit arte ratem
utque parum validus non proficientia rector
cervicis rigidae frena remittit equo,
sic, non quo voluit, sed quo rapit impetus undae,
aurigam video vela dedisse rati.

OVID, Tristia, 1, 4, 5 - 16

6th anniversary of Summorum Pontificum - No impact in my world

Today on the 7th July 2013 we celebrate 6 years since the motu proprio "summorum pontificum" (SP) of Pope Benedict XVI, with which he freely allowed the celebration of the Traditional Latin Mass (TLM) according to the Missal of the blessed John XXIII (Missal of 1962). This means that the celebrating priest no longer requires permission of the local bishop as was prescribed in the motu proprio "Ecclesia Dei" of the blessed Pope John Paul II. Additionaly SP foresaw the establishment of personal parishes for the faithful attached to the TLM. Pope Benedict also stated in SP that the TLM was never abrogated i.e. abolished, a very important statement from a traditional Catholic point of view.

I thought six years was a good time to analyze whether SP had any impact. From a humble perspective I wanted to analyze this for my world, not for the whole world, as I do not have the TLM statistics readily available for the whole Catholic world. I define "my world" as all the cities I have lived in so far. These are 1) in Switzerland: Zurich, Luzern, Basel and Bottmingen 2) in Germany: Munich 3) in the United Kingdom: London and finally, 4) in my home country Austria: Linz and Vienna.

Additionally I thought it makes more sense to look for regular TLMs on Sundays and Holy Days of Obligation as well as at the establishment of personal parishes. So I did not consider the odd mass on one Thursday per month or something similar, because these irregular masses do not lead to a build up of a stable group of faithful. Also, I did not consider TLMs celebrated by the Priestly Fraternity of St. Pius X. (FSSPX), because the FSSPX, while being part of the Catholic Church, is canonically irregular and hence not impacted by either "Eclessia Dei" or SP.

Let us start with the analysis in Switzerland, in the city of Zürich. Before and after SP there is a Sunday TLM in Zürich-Oerlikon (Herz Jesu Church), run by the Priestly Fraternity of St. Peter (FSSP). No change. Apparently this TLMs is now associated with a personal parish "St. Maximilian Kolbe", which is beautiful
but in terms of the Mass itself, no change. And this Sunday TLM is still at 5 pm. So no change. Lets move to Luzern. There the Sunday TLM is in the "Sentikirche" at 9:50 am, and this has not changed since SP. In Basel, there is a Sunday TLM with the FSSP at 10:30 in St. Anton church run by the FSSP and one in St. Joseph church at 5 pm celebrated by the Institute of Christ the King (ICRSS). Both have not changed since SP. Bottmingen lies in the canton Basel Land. In the whole canton Basel Land there is not a single Sunday TLM. This is also unchanged since the TLM.

In Munich there is one Sunday TLM in the St. Anna church (Damenstift) at 8:45 am and this has not changed since SP. In London there is of course the BromptonOratory where there is a Sunday TLM at 9 am and in St. James Church (Spanish Place) at 9:30 am. Both churches are not personal parishes for the TLM and offer also the novus ordo mass. In large cities like Munich or London one would have thought that at least there, the TLM personal parish as foreseen in SP by Pope Benedict XVI, would be implemented. But this is affirmatively not the case. Certainly the TLM in the Brompton Oratory was there before. Perhaps the TLM
in the St. James church is new. So maybe a small change in London, but I am not sure.

Finally, Austria. In Linz, there is as there always was, a TLM in the Minoriten church. This TLM actually was there all the time since the novus ordo was introduced by Pope Paul VI. in 1969 since the local priest simply refused to celebrate the novus ordo. Later this mass was taken over by the FSSP. There are even two TLMs every Sunday morning. A low mass at 8:30 am and a sung high mass at 10:30 am. In Vienna the FSSP are also strong and they offer the 6 pm mass in the Capuchine Church above the Imperial crypt since many years . It seems however that they now also offer a Sunday morning mass in the Church of St. Peter and Paul (3rd district). I believe this TLM to be new and perhaps due to SP. However it is a long time since I lived in Vienna so I cannot say for sure.

So in conclusion I have to say, at least in my world, summorum pontificum had no impact. This is a sad thing to say on the sixth anniversary of this important document, but it is the truth.

What could be the reason? One reason is certainly that the traditional faithful are not united. The Ecclesia Dei groups such as ICRSS and FSSP are not united in some cities like Basel there are even two  small TLMs competing with each other instead of uniting into one personal parish. And in addition the Ecclesia Dei groups are fighting with the FSSPX, the largest traditional group in terms of priests.

Another reason is, although Pope Benedict XVI. wanted the change, 90% of the bishops do not want to see an increase in the traditional mass. Already before the very unfortunate resignation of Pope Benedict, the talks of the FSSPX and the Vatican had ground to halt due to the appointment of Bishop Müller of Regensburg, an arch-enemy of the traditional mass, to the position of head of the congregation for the doctrine of the faith. The CDF is also responsible for the papal commission "Ecclesia Dei" and the talks with the FSSPX. Of course there will be no further impact of SP in the pontificate of Francis, as Francis, when he was archbishop of Buenos Aires, did actually prevent the implementation of SP.

There are difficult times ahead.

Let us hope and pray for the Traditional Latin Mass.

Islam is not a peaceful religion

"Show me just what Muhammad brought that was new and there you will find things only bad and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached."

His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI. 
(quoting Byzantine Emperor Manuel II Palailogos)

University of Regensburg, 12^th September 2006

Link to violent Q'ran verses
http://conservativecolloquium.wordpress.com/2008/03/11/violent-and-intolerant-quran-verses/

Schikanen im Österreichischen Konsulat Basel.

Auslandsösterreicher tritt ein, um einen neuen Reisepass für seinen 13-Jährigen Sohn zu beantragen. Er hat sich vorher auf der Website des österreichischen Aussenministeriums eingehend informiert, welche Dokumente mitzubringen sind. Also legt er folgende Dokumente vor:

1) Seinen österreichischen Reisepass

2) Reisepass seines Sohnes

3) Seinen Schweizer Ausländerausweis

4) Schweizer Ausländerausweis seines Sohnes

5) Geburtsurkunde seines Sohnes

6) Heiratsurkunde 

7) Beglaubigte Übersetzung der Heiratsurkunde

8) Staatsbürgerschaftsnachweis seines Sohnes

9) Passfotos in der Größe 4,5 x 3,5 cm

10) Personenstandserklärung seines Sohnes 

11) Antrag für den neuen Reisepass, unterschrieben von ihm und seinem Sohn unterschrieben

12) CHF 130,40 Konsular- und Passgebühr

Ihm wird mitgeteilt, das der Passantrag nicht behandelt werden kann, da

1) Personenstandserklärung ungültig, da nicht das richtige Formular verwendet wurde

2) Passphotos sind ungültig, da der Sohn auf dem Photo gelächelt hat und Zähne zu sehen sind, außerdem steht er ganz leicht geneigt und nicht völlig frontal

3) Neue Passphotos, EU konform, sind anzufertigen (CHF 40)

4) Ausländerausweis des Vaters als Wohnsitzbescheinigung ungültig, obwohl der Schweizer Ausländer-ausweis die Wohnadresse explizit aufführt.

5) Ausländerausweis des Sohnes als Wohnsitzbescheinigung ungültig, obwohl der Schweizer Ausländer-ausweis die Wohnadresse explizit aufführt.

6) Der schulpflichtige Sohn muss persönlich erscheinen, zur Abnahme von Fingerabdrücken

7) Der Vater muss bei seiner Schweizer Wohngemeinde eine Wohnsitzbescheinigung einholen (CHF 20)

8) Der Sohn muss bei seiner Schweizer Wohngemeinde eine Wohnsitzbescheinigung einholen (CHF 20)

Danke, liebe Republik Österreich! Es macht immer wieder Freude, Euer Bürger zu sein. Großartig auch, das Ihr die 400 Jahre alte barocke Bürokratie, statt Sie zu reformieren um zusätzliche EU-Schikanen erweitert habt.

Österreicher zu sein, ist wahrhaft, ein Luxus, den man sich leisten können muss.Wie lange können wir uns diesen Luxus noch leisten?

Papst Franzikus ist ein Rotarier

S. Heiligkeit Papst Franzikus ist ein Rotarier (Mitglied des Clubs Buenos Aires seit 1999, 2005 mit dem silbernen Lorbeerblatt ausgezeichnet). Das ist beunruhigend, da viele Rotarier Freimaurer sind und man die Rotarier mit Recht als Vorfeldorganisation der Freimaurer bezeichnen kann. Das zeigt sich schon im radikal säkulären/säkularistischen Auftritt dieser Organisation. Ich dachte eigentlich, erster Papst der Jesuit ist, genügt, aber erster Papst der Rotarier ist, ist ein bisschen viel. Immerhin sind Freimaurer seit der Bulle des Papstes Clemens XII. "in eminenti" automatisch exkommuniziert. Natürlich sind auch die Kardinäle Marx (München), Lehmann (Mainz) sowie der Bischof Algermissen Rotarier. Sie haben Kard. Bergoglio wohl auch im Konklave 2013 gewählt. Der Rauch der Freimaurerei im Konklave? Der "Theologe" Küng ist übrigens auch Rotarier und hat sich sehr über die Wahl Bergoglios gefreut? Ich erkenne ein Muster.....

Omnia instaurare in Christo

In dem Moment, als ich das Bild heute sah, wo Seine Eminenz Kardinal Bergoglio niederkniet und die Füssen dieses krebskanken vom Tod gezeichneten Kindes im Rollstuhl küsst, wusste ich mit Sicherheit das gestern im Konklave der heilige Geist wirklich gewirkt hat. Unser hl. Vater hat in diesem Kind und seinem Leiden den gekreuzigten Christus gesehen und all sein Leid als Er sich hingab für unsere Sünden. Dieser grosse Priester wird wieder Christus in den Mittelpunkt der Kirche stellen getreu dem Motto des heiligen Papstes Pius X: "Omnia instaurare in Christo". Er wird niemanden ausgrenzen, auch nicht die Piusbruderschaft. Ich erwarte mir einen konservativen Reformpapst ganz in der Form des heiligen Pius X. der, wie Papst Franz, aus armen Verhältnissen kommend keinen Sinn für Statussymbole und zuviel Pomp hatte und gleichzeit aber die Fehler der Moderne verurteilte und den Blick klar auf Christus richtete.

Bold prediction and updated probabilities

My current prediction for the conclave: an early run-off between Scherer and Scola, both get burned in the process and Cardinals realize they both don't have much charism. After that, strong candidates with deep faith suddenly emerge: Bagnasco, O'Malley and Burke. One of those three, most likely O'Malley (10% currently) is elected the 265th successor to St. Peter.

TOP 20 Papal Candidates

(Source: centurioweblog.blogspot.ch , 11.3.2013, 23:00)
Cardinal	Country	Probability
Angelo Scola	Italy	19.75%
Odilo Scherer	Brazil	11.11%
Peter Turkson	Ghana	9.88%
Marc Ouellet	Canada	4.44%
Gianfranco Ravasi	Italy	3.17%
Seán Patrick O'Malley	United States	3.17%
Raymond Leo Burke	United States	2.78%
Luis Antonio Tagle	Philippines	2.22%
Timothy M. Dolan	United States	2.22%
Angelo Bagnasco	Italy	1.78%
Leonardo Sandri	Argentina	1.78%
Mauro Piacenza	Italy	1.11%
Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga	Honduras	1.11%
Philippe Barbarin	France	1.11%
Thomas Christopher Collins	Canada	1.11%
Wilfrid Napier	South Africa	1.11%
Jorge Bergoglio	Argentina	0.89%
Antonio Cañizares Llovera	Spain	0.67%
Béchara Boutros Raï	Lebanon	0.67%
Agostino Vallini	Italy	0.67%

Tonights update of my top 20 Papal probabilities. Amazing: Card. Raymond Leo Burke has shot up (from practically nowhere) to place number 7. Also Sean O Malley OFM Cap has risen in rank order to number 6, whereas Odilo Scherer has replaced Turkson as No.2 (despite his Sacrilege in the Laetare Mass yesterday in Rome - Cathcon has reported). The mathematical algorithm for calculating probabilities is unchanged, I simply updated the odds sourced from paddypower.com @ 11 pm CET.

Happy conclusion: The US-American Cardinals are now definitely in the Game and will play an important part in the conclave. Globalisation in the Church does not jump in leaps and bounds but moves rather from Italy to Poland to Germany to US?

Probabilities of Papal Names

What does the 2005 conclave tell us?

voting patterns of the 2005 conclave
sources: wikipedia.it, and M. Politi "Benedikt, Krise eines Pontifikats", Rotbuch Verlag Berlin 2012.

As we put our minds to the upcoming conclave in terms of "game theory" it is important to recall the two most recent instances in 2005 and 1978. Lets start with the 2005 conclave.


Martini SJ (+) was an early candidate of the progressives in the first ballot, however already by the 2nd vote the progressives lost confidence and did not vote for Martini, switching to Bergoglio SJ as a more likely anti-Ratzinger, more moderately progressive candidate. However in the end the neoconservatives won out and Ratzinger was elected with 84 votes, 7 votes more than the 2/3 majority needed.

Of course, according to "universi dominici gregis", an absolute majority after 34 ballots would have been sufficient as well, however only after 4 ballots the decision was reached. No one did want to go to 34 ballots. This rule has been abolished by Benedikt XVI. and now the 2/3 majority rule is again the key point to keep in mind. This means that this time, if there is a block of 40 Cardinal-Electors, they can block the majority candidate.

This time the conservative candidate is most likely to be Card. Scola and the progressive candidate Card. Scherer. If Scherer can have a block of 40 votes, he can block Scola, and a compromise candidate would have to emerge. Who would that compromise candidate be?