Freitag, 4. Juli 2014

The number of traditional priests up to 2050


Using available statistical data from the center for applied research in the apostolate (1) and from various sources on the traditional institutes of priests (2), I have put together forecasts on the future number of priests until the year 2050. In order to put these forecasts together I used the simple iterative formula

n (t+1) = n (t) * (1 - r) + o

where n(t+1) is the number of priests in the next year, n(t) is the number of priests in the current year, r is the rate of retirement or priests per year expressed in percent of all priests, and o is the number of ordinations of new priests each year. I was able to obtain the total number of priests as well as the number of ordinations from the sources mentioned above and input into the formula. For the retirement rate I assumed 2.5% which equals to 40 active years for a priest this means that every year 1/40 of all priests becomes inactive. I did all calculations for the individual orders of traditional priests, then summed them up to all traditional priests. I also did the calculation for all priests (currently 414,313) according to the CARA data (1).

Please see table 1 for the input values
Table 1


Here are some of the results in Chart 1.
Chart 1
Chart 1 shows that the Society of St. Pius X (FSSPX) will remain the largest traditional institute, growing to over 900 priests by 2050. Two other large groups of priests are Society of St. Peter (FSSP) which will reach almost 400 priests by 2050 and the Institute of Christ the King (ICRSS) which will reach over 200 priests by 2050. Smaller groups that will not reach 100 priest by 2050 are the Institute du Bon Pasteur (IBP) and the Personal Apostolic Administration of St. John Marie Vianney.

Chart 2

Chart 2 shows that the total number of traditional priests will exceed 1000 for the first time in 2016 in the very near future and reach over 1600 by 2050.

While this growth is impressive, the total number of traditional priests in relation to the total number of priests will remain small, as one can see in the next chart, chart 3.
Chart 3
The total number of priests world-wide will fall from 414,000 to about 323,000 in the period up to 2050. In total the percentage of traditional priests as % of total priests will more than double from 0.23% to 0.5%. However, the number of traditional priests will still remain small (0.5%) in relation to all priests. All this is shown in chart 4.
Chart 4

All these forecasts did not assume any additional events or acceleration or deceleration in the variables used. Clearly, the current rate of formation of traditional priests is completely insufficient, if we want to see that the Traditional Mass and the Traditional Sacraments once completely replace those of the Novus Ordo. Even in 2050 the Novus Ordo would win 99 : 1. More work and more prayer is needed.

Sources:
(1) http://cara.georgetown.edu/index.html   CARA
(2) 
2.1) http://www.fssp.org/en/chiffres.htm (FSSP)
2.2) http://www.institutechristking.org/institute/whoweare/  (ICRSS)
2.3) http://laportelatine.org/quisommesnous/statistiques/stat.php (FSSPX)
2.4) http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institut_du_BonPasteur (IBP)
2.5) Annuario Pontifico 2012 (PAAJMV)

Donnerstag, 24. April 2014

I. Radisch // "CAMUS - Das Ideal der Einfachheit"



Habe dieses Buch mit grossen Vergnügen (und grosser Aufmerksamkeit) gelesen und kann es wärmstens allen empfehlen, die sich für Camus interessieren und/oder eine gewisse Seelenverwandheit empfinden. Das Buch ist sehr einfühlsam und exzellent recherchiert, und vor allem keine Hagiographie. Camus war kein Heiliger und wird auch nicht als solcher dargestellt. Dennoch: wenn man bedenkt das er damals von Sartre überstrahlt wurde als der Kommunismus noch als valide Ideologie galt, zeigt sich nun, 54 Jahre nach Camus frühen Tod, das Camus sicherlich in vielem der Wegweisendere war, und nicht sein "fellow existentialist" J.P. Sartre. Camus ist gerade sehr aktuell was zum Beispiel die neuesten Umwälzungen am Rande des Méditerranée betrifft!

Wie gesagt: ich kann die Lektüre dieser Biographie nur empfehlen.

Samstag, 18. Januar 2014

Der Graf von Habsburg




Der Graf von Habsburg 

von Friedrich Schiller

Zu Aachen in seiner Kaiserpracht,

   Im alterthümlichen Saale,
Saß König Rudolphs heilige Macht
   Beim festlichen Krönungsmahle.
Die Speisen trug der Pfalzgraf des Rheins,
Es schenkte der Böhme des perlenden Weins,
   Und alle die Wähler, die Sieben,
Wie der Sterne Chor um die Sonne sich stellt,
Umstanden geschäftig den Herrscher der Welt,
   Die Würde des Amtes zu üben.


Und rings erfüllte den hohen Balcon

   Das Volk in freud’gen Gedränge,
Laut mischte sich in der Posaunen Ton
   Das jauchzende Rufen der Menge;
Denn geendigt nach langem verderblichen Streit
War die kaiserlose, die schreckliche Zeit,
   Und ein Richter war wieder auf Erden;
Nicht blind mehr waltet der eiserne Speer,
Nicht fürchtet der Schwache, der Friedliche mehr
   Des Mächtigen Beute zu werden.


Und der Kaiser ergreift den goldnen Pocal,

   Und spricht mit zufriedenen Blicken:
„Wohl glänzet das Fest, wohl pranget das Mahl,
   Mein königlich Herz zu entzücken;
Doch den Sänger vermiss’ ich, den Bringer der Lust,
Der mit süßem Klang mir bewege die Brust
   Und mit göttlich erhabenen Lehren.
So hab’ ich’s gehalten von Jugend an,
Und was ich als Ritter gepflegt und gethan,
   Nicht will ich’s als Kaiser entbehren.“


Und sieh! in der Fürsten umgebenden Kreis

   Trat der Sänger im langen Talare;
Ihm glänzte die Locke silberweiß,
   Gebleicht von der Fülle der Jahre.
„Süßer Wohllaut schläft in der Saiten Gold,
Der Sänger singt von der Minne Gold,
   Er preiset das Höchste, das Beste,
Was das Herz sich wünscht, was der Sinn begehrt;
Doch sage, was ist des Kaisers werth
   An seinem herrlichsten Feste?“ –


„Nicht gebieten werd’ ich dem Sänger,“ spricht

   Der Herrscher mit lächelndem Munde,
„Er steht in des größeren Herren Pflicht,
   Er gehorcht der gebietenden Stunde.
Wie in den Lüften der Sturmwind saust,
Man weiß nicht von wannen er kommt und braust,
   Wie der Quell aus verborgenen Tiefen,
So des Sängers Lied aus dem Innern schallt
Und weckt der dunkeln Gefühle Gewalt,
   Die im Herzen wunderbar schleifen.“


Und der Sänger rasch in die Saiten fällt

   Und beginnt sie mächtig zu schlagen:
„Aufs Waidwerk hinaus ritt ein edler Held,
   Den flüchtigen Gemsbock zu jagen.
Ihm folgte der Knapp mit dem Jägergeschoß,
Und als er auf seinem stattlichen Roß
   In eine Au kommt geritten,
Ein Glöcklein hört er erklingen fern,
Ein Priester war’s mit dem Leib des Herrn;
   Voran kam der Meßner geschritten.“


„Und der Graf zur Erde sich neiget hin,

   Das Haupt mit Demuth entblößet,
Zu verehren mit gläubigem Christensinn,
   Was alle Menschen erlöset.
Ein Bächlein aber rauschte durchs Feld
Von des Gießbachs reißenden Fluten geschwellt,
   Das hemmte der Wanderer Tritte;
Und beiseit legt jener das Sacrament,
Von den Füßen zieht er die Schuhe behend,
   Damit er das Bächlein durchschritte.“


„Was schaffst du? redet der Graf ihn an,

   Der ihn verwundert betrachtet. –
Herr, ich walle zu einem sterbenden Mann,
   Der nach der Himmelskost schmachtet;
Und da ich mich nahe des Baches Steg,
Da hat ihn der strömende Gießbach hinweg
   Im Strudel der Wellen gerissen.
Drum daß dem Lechzenden werde sein Heil,
So will ich das Wässerlein jetzt in Eil’
   Durchwaten mit nackenden Füßen.“


„Da setzt ihn der Graf auf sein ritterlich Pferd

   Und reicht ihm die prächtigen Zäume,
Daß er labe den Kranken, der sein begehrt,
   Und die heilige Pflicht nicht versäume.
Und er selbst auf seines Knappen Thier
Vergnüget noch weiter des Jagens Begier;
   Der Andre die Reise vollführet,
Und am nächsten Morgen, mit dankendem Blick
Da bringt er dem Grafen sein Roß zurück,
   Bescheiden am Zügel geführet.“


„Nicht wolle das Gott, rief mit Demuthsinn

   Der Graf, daß zum Streiten und Jagen
Das Roß ich beschritte fürderhin,
   Das meinen Schöpfer getragen!
Und magst du’s nicht haben zu eignem Gewinnst,
So bleibt es gewidmet dem göttlichen Dienst!
   Denn ich hab’ es dem ja gegeben,
Von dem ich Ehre und irdisches Gut
Zu Lehen trage und Leib und Blut
   Und Seele und Athem und Leben.“


„So mög’ auch Gott, der allmächtige Hort,

   Der das Flehen der Schwachen erhöret,
Zu Ehren euch bringen hier und dort,
   So wie ihr jetzt ihn geehret.
Ihr seyd ein mächtiger Graf, bekannt
Durch ritterlich Walten im Schweizerland.
   Euch blühen sechs liebliche Töchter.
So mögen sie, rief er begeistert aus,
Sechs Kronen euch bringen in euer Haus,
   Und glänzen die spätsten Geschlechter!“


Und mit sinnendem Haupt saß der Kaiser da,

   Als dächt’ er vergangener Zeiten!
Jetzt, da er dem Sänger ins Auge sah,
   Da ergreift ihn der Worte Bedeuten.
Die Züge des Priesters erkennt er schnell,
Und verbirgt der Thränen stürzenden Quell
   In des Mantels purpurnen Falten.
Und alles blickte den Kaiser an.
Und erkannte den Grafen, der das gethan,
   Und verehrte das göttliche Walten.


Donnerstag, 16. Januar 2014

Zuerst starb der Papst


Der Leichnam Papst Pius XII. aufgebahrt im Petersdom

Zuerst starb der Papst. Das war eine ernste Angelegenheit. Der Generalpräfekt versammelte um sechs Uhr dreißig vor der Frühmesse alle Präfekten, Vizepräfekten und Zöglinge im ungeheizten Theatersaal und verkündete: "Der Heilige Vater ist tot. Jetzt sind wir Waisen. Lasst uns für seine Seele beten, und dass uns die Dreifaltigkeit Trost gewähre." 


Die ersten Zeilen des Buches "Wie ich lernte, bei mir selbst Kind zu sein" (2008) von André Heller.


André Heller
André Heller (Mai 1979)


Montag, 13. Januar 2014

Quo Vadis Francisce?

Heute war (wieder) einer dieser Tage wo mich unser heiliger Vater, Papst Franz, wieder komplett verwirrt hat. Da war zum einen die Zelebration ad orientem in der Sixtina, die mich sehr gefreut hat, zum anderen die (für mich negative) Nachricht, das S. E. Bischof Müller der Chef der Glaubenskongregation (Häretiker und Erzfeind der FSSPX) , wie zu erwarten zum Kardinal kreiert wird..
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Today was (again) one of those days were our Holy Father, Pope Francis has completely confused me. On the one hand there was the positive news that Pope Francis celebrated hl. Mass in the Sixtina ad orientem, on the other hand we heard that as expected, H. E. Bishop Müller, Head of the CDF (and known for his heretic views and enmity towards tradition and the FSSPX specifically) will soon receive the Red Cardinals hat..
-
QUO VADIS FRANCISCE?

Heilige Namen



Heilige Namen, allzeit beisammen, Jesus, Maria, Josef! 
Von Gott gegeben zum Trost im Leben, Jesus, Maria, Josef! 

Die Welt ihr zieret, zu Gott hinführet, Jesus, Maria, Joseph! 
Auf Euch wir sehen, zu Euch wir flehen, Jesus, Maria, Joseph!

Auf Euch wir bauen und fest vertrauen, Jesus, Maria, Joseph! 
zu uns Euch neiget, uns Lieb erzeiget, Jesus, Maria, Joseph!

O helft von Sünden Verzeihung finden, Jesus, Maria, Joseph! 
Im Kampf uns schützet, uns unterstützet, Jesus, Maria, Joseph!

Im letzten Streite steht uns zur Seite, Jesus, Maria, Joseph! 
Den Feind vertreibet und bei uns bleibet, Jesus, Maria, Joseph!

Wir unsere Seelen Euch anbefehlen, Jesus, Maria, Joseph! 
Helft uns im Sterben das Heil erwerben, Jesus, Maria, Joseph!

Freitag, 10. Januar 2014

Zum Thema Michael Hesemann..


Zum Thema Michael Hesemann hier ein Auszug aus seiner Besprechung des „Buches des Jahres 1993“ „Die Götter von Eden“ von Bramley, einem anderen Ufo-Gläubigen. Sie findet sich im Heft 97 des "Magazin 2000", S. 60-61:

"So stimmt Bramleys Sicht erstaunlicherweise überein mit dem, was die Plejadierin Semjase [eine angebliche Außerirdische] dem Schweizer Eduard Meier mitteilte ... : Daß es tatsächlich machtgierige Außerirdische waren, die die ‚irdischen Kultreligionen‘ einführten und sich von uns als Götter verehren ließen, um die Menschheit zu unterdrücken und auszubeuten.“

??

Freitag, 13. Dezember 2013

Vatican bank // An 11-month FT investigation


By Rachel Sanderson

An 11-month FT investigation reveals the extent of mismanagement at the €5bn-asset bank

On June 28 this year, Italian police arrested a silver-haired priest, Monsignor Nunzio Scarano, in Rome. The cleric, nicknamed Monsignor Cinquecento after the €500 bills he habitually carried around with him, was charged with fraud and corruption, together with a former secret service agent and a ­financial broker. All three were suspected of attempting to smuggle €20m by private plane across the border from Switzerland.

Prosecutors alleged that the priest, a former banker, was using the Institute for Religious Works – the formal name for the Vatican’s bank – to move money for businessmen based in the Naples region, widely regarded in Italy as a haven of organised crime. Worse still, Scarano (who, together with the other men, has denied any wrongdoing) had until only a month earlier been head of the accounting department at the Administration of the Patrimony of the Apostolic See, the treasury of the Vatican.

The arrest, and the headlines that screamed across the Italian press, was the latest shock for the Holy See. The year had already witnessed an emotional upheaval in the church with the resignation in February of the aged Pope Benedict XVI – the first time in 700 years a pope had stepped down voluntarily. But this new crisis demanded cold, hard resolve. For regulators and politicians in Europe who had pushed for change in the Vatican’s scandal-plagued bank over the previous four years – from the Bank of Italy under Mario Draghi to officials in Mario Monti’s government and in Brussels – it served as evidence of their concerns. Those worries also jolted a number of international financiers determined to press for reform.

In early July, Peter Sutherland, non-executive chairman of Goldman Sachs International and the former attorney-general of Ireland, flew into Vatican City. His mission – although described by some insiders as simply a “bit part” in the wider drive for change – was an illuminating one. Sutherland, a practising Catholic and an unpaid consultant to the Vatican’s treasury, had been asked by reformers in the church to speak with the council of cardinals, the most senior advisers to the pope. His message to the men who filed into a room near Doma Santa Marta, the plain-fronted residence of Pope Francis, was respectful but direct.

The banker, who declined to comment for this story, added his voice to the many in and outside the church asking the world’s smallest city-state to change its ways. “Transparency is important and necessary,” Sutherland said, according to two people who were informed of proceedings in the closed-door meeting.

The cardinals, known for long, contemplative consultations, were surprisingly receptive, said one of those informed. After a decade of paedophilia scandals, the allegations of financial impropriety seemed set to unleash another storm of criticism and had to be addressed. Outside auditors as well as financial risk consultants were already coming into the Vatican but the arrest of Scarano made the case for reform unavoidable. “We cannot have any more scandal. It is so shameful,” a senior member of the Vatican’s financial administration said.

The Financial Times has investigated the extent of the mismanagement at the Vatican bank. In this audio slideshow, find out how the scandal erupted and what has been done to help strengthen the bank.
How God’s bank ended up as a financial penitent this year is a bracing chapter in the history of financial reforms that have swelled up in the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis. Untouchable havens such as Switzerland and Liechtenstein were forced to open their chocolate-box palaces to the probes of international regulators. This year the power of the popes was challenged.

The FT interviewed two dozen bankers, lawyers, regulators and Catholic insiders over 11 months to understand how the murky operations of a bank with €5bn in assets, and which says its aim is to serve the global mission of the Catholic Church, had unnerved bankers, regulators and governments across Europe and the US.

The reforms now under way at the Vatican have come about in part because of the pressure brought to bear by banks such as Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and UniCredit, all of which found themselves in the sights of regulators because of their business relationships with the Holy See. About three dozen banks, including some of the world’s biggest financial institutions, were for years “correspondent” banks to the Vatican, providing services when the pope’s business went beyond the boundaries of Vatican City. As with other institutional clients, the banks gave the Vatican access to foreign financial markets. Correspondent banks moved as much as €2bn a year from the Vatican’s bank to other accounts across the globe, according to a Vatican spokesman. It was the bankers’ fear of being tarnished by their links with the Vatican bank after the credit crisis – and fears of fines from emboldened regulators – that led them to take steps that forced it to clean up its act.

Several financial professionals talked in detail to the FT about their dealings with Vatican staff and provided documents about the bank’s structure. None wanted to speak on the record, citing sensitivities in both their banking and religious worlds. All told the FT that they were speaking out in order to help the bank keep to its programme of reform.

Senior executives from some correspondent banks had been questioned by regulators over the past two years and several had the same refrain about their dealings with the Vatican bank: it operated unlike any other bank they had encountered. Some who spoke to the FT reinforced what later emerged from reports by European officials on the bank’s workings. There were surprisingly few checks and balances on cash flow – and far less documentation than expected. The staff was small – 112 people, largely Italian until this year, with cardinals acting as supervisors. Many of the staff seemed unversed in customer due diligence, according to some. “They would not answer basic [Know Your Client] requests,” a senior manager at an international bank says.

The Institute for Religious Works issued its first annual report in early October, which showed that the bank has 19,000 clients, from around the world, 33,000 accounts and €5bn in assets. Few loans are made; the bank holds deposits, transfers money and makes investments. Half the bank’s clients come from religious orders; another 15 per cent are Holy See institutions, 13 per cent are cardinals, bishops and clergy, 9 per cent are from Catholic dioceses around the world. The rest of the clients are split among those who have, or should have, some “affiliation to the Catholic Church”, the report says.

Vatican insiders also revealed that the bank is awash in donations and cash, from Sunday collections and charitable giving. As much as 25 per cent of the bank’s business is done in cash – a feature that regulators said raised red flags for money laundering. About a third of its business comes from donations rooted in charities.

Laura Pedio, a Milan anti-Mafia prosecutor who specialises in white-collar crime, was one of the few sources willing to speak publicly to the FT. Pedio, who had been investigating the bankruptcy of a Catholic hospital in 2011 and needed access to Vatican bank information, said she was astonished to find a complex system of proxies, the authorisations given to representatives to execute transactions on behalf of often unidentified beneficial account holders.

She found multiple people often had proxies but details about the proxy holders were apparently not recorded anywhere in the bank. Some, she said, could be verbally identified by only a few people within the Vatican bank. There was, she said, literally no way to force an answer. “The issue was always: ‘Who is the ultimate beneficiary of this account?’” she says.

One adviser to the Vatican, who lives hundreds of miles from the marble colonnades of Rome, says the pursuit by prosecutors and regulators of the Vatican created a shift in mood among bankers to the Holy See. Under pressure themselves from a clampdown by European regulators, the banks were no longer open for business with a secretive Vatican. “There was a no-nonsense approach from the correspondent banks,” this adviser says. “‘We are not here to cover the ass of the Vatican.’”
. . .
Vatican City, a sovereign state that fiercely guards its privacy, has some of the trappings of a small town, with a supermarket, pharmacy, petrol station and a post office within its borders. But its hometown bank has the plummiest of addresses: the Apostolic Palace.

Popes Benedict and John Paul II both had their bedrooms two floors above the bank. An elevator was installed in the Apostolic Palace for John Paul II when he became too infirm to take the stairs. The elevator’s ground-floor entrance is next to the back door of the bank. (Pope Francis has opted for a less palatial residence, notably on the opposite side of Vatican City to the bank.)

Debate about what the popes knew about who came and went through the bank’s doors has occupied generations of Vatican watchers. The bank’s forerunner was created in 1887 as “an administration” to gather and use money for religious works. In 1942, in the chaotic war years, Pope Pius XII gave it a new name and a clear banking purpose.

The Institute for Religious Works was to provide for “the custody and the administration of monies (in bonds and cash) and properties transferred or entrusted to the Institute itself by fiscal or legal persons for the purposes of religious works, and works of Christian piety”. In the decades that followed, questions about some of that work – notably relationships and business deals examined by David Yallop in his 1984 bestseller, In God’s Name – would stir intrigue about possible Mafia connections. A 1996 book, His Holiness by Marco Politi and Carl Bernstein, offered a more benevolent view of Vatican cash flow in the 1980s: Pope John Paul II had systemically sent money to Solidarity, the Polish resistance movement, through a papal discretionary account, in an effort to break the back of communism in eastern Europe.

The most infamous publicity surrounded revelations about the Vatican bank’s dealings with Milan’s Banco Ambrosiano, the only bank collapse in Italy’s history. The Vatican bank was Banco Ambrosiano’s main shareholder. After its demise in 1982, Banco Ambrosiano’s chairman, Roberto Calvi, was found hanged under London’s Blackfriars Bridge. Prosecutors in Rome concluded that he was killed by the Sicilian Mafia but no one has ever been convicted of his murder.

In recent years, the bank has again featured in media reports for its funding of religious and humanitarian activities across the world. Former and current Vatican officials have confirmed to the FT that the bank has been used to channel cash, often secretly or with ­limited information given to correspondent banks, to vulnerable Christian groups in Cuba and Egypt.

But Vatican insiders, bankers and prosecutors admit that a system aimed at quickly getting money to difficult places has also potentially been open to abuse by tax cheats and by organised crime. “The issue is that once you start doing opaque transactions in an institution, people don’t know where to draw a line and to stop. What started in effect with moving money to Poland got out of control,” says a senior European banker at a US bank with a longstanding relationship with the Vatican. “There were no rules,” a Vatican insider commented. “So if you add to that someone with a criminal [motivation], you are finished.”

Up until 2008, according to one former senior Vatican banker, regulation of the Vatican bank was “indulgent”. This person says that no pressure was brought to bear on the Vatican to clean up its act either by regulators overseeing its correspondent banks or by officials within the Holy See.

But the euro crisis changed all that. Pressure from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Europe’s Financial Stability Board and the Financial Action Task Force led to a crackdown on states that failed to comply with international rules. At the same time, prosecutors in Rome were probing suspicious transactions that appeared to be emanating out of the Holy See into the Italian banking system. Their focus was a branch of UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank by assets, that sits on the road leading up to Vatican City.

A routine Bank of Italy anti money-laundering investigation at the branch had stumbled upon inconsistencies in its dealings with the Vatican bank, and it referred the issue to Rome prosecutors. According to a source familiar with the matter, payment slips from unnamed holders of Vatican bank accounts were found in the branch, ringing alarm bells for anti-money laundering investigators. The investigation was shelved later that year but not without consequences for the Vatican. UniCredit says it cut off all contact with the Holy See. It would not be the last bank to do so.

Forcing change was a challenge. Part of the problem was that the European Union had no regulatory power over the Vatican’s bank. So it was decided that the Bank of Italy, at the time headed by Draghi, would put pressure on the banks that did business with the Vatican. A former Italian minister with direct knowledge says: “That is the way you do it in these situations, when you have a state that you do not have regulatory powers over but you want to enforce changes. You make their life very difficult. You tell the banks they are not allowed to do business with them.”

By 2009, the Vatican bank was caught in various financial crosshairs. As prosecutors continued their line of questioning, the Bank of Italy was putting on the pressure by making life tough for the correspondent banks, according to several people with direct knowledge of events.

The Vatican, with an increasingly frail Benedict at the helm, tried to put its own stamp on the probes by appointing a well-connected conservative banker, Ettore Gotti Tedeschi, to take over the presidency of the bank. It also made a request to the Council of Europe for an investigation by Moneyval, the council’s Committee of Experts on the Evaluation of Anti-Money Laundering Measures and the Financing of Terrorism. Pope Benedict even gave his blessing to the creation of a financial supervisor within the walls of the Vatican.

Gotti Tedeschi was well known to the central bank. He was the head of Banco Santander in Italy and considered to be the right-hand man of Santander’s powerful executive chairman Emilio Botín in the country. He also sat on the board of Italy’s giant state financing agency, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. But according to people familiar with the events, Gotti Tedeschi was viewed with distrust among some members of the council of cardinals which he tried to encourage to be more transparent. Personal battles with the Vatican hierarchy took their toll as well: in May 2012 he was ejected from the presidency after a no-confidence vote by the board. He even faced criminal charges that were later dropped after an investigation by Italian prosecutors.
That year, correspondent banks also grew increasingly worried. The Vatican’s failure to comply with international anti-money laundering rules had the potential to affect their own businesses. As regulators cracked down on tax cheats in offshore havens such as Switzerland, the banks feared regulators would turn on them for working with a Vatican that was still guarding its own banking secrets.

In March 2012, JPMorgan closed the bank account it held for the Vatican because the Vatican bank was providing insufficient information about funds that it was asking the US bank to move around the world, according to two sources at two different financial institutions. Other banks started to push back against the Vatican. “We would say, ‘We need to answer the regulator on this matter.’ They would say, ‘We answer to God,’” says another manager at a large European bank.

The EU’s Moneyval reinforced the sense of embattlement at the Vatican with its report in July 2012. Moneyval said that the Financial Information Authority, the regulator set up with Pope Benedict’s blessing, lacked the legal powers and independence needed to monitor and sanction the Vatican’s financial institutions. It had found that the regulator had no clear right to demand access to books or information. The Vatican bank was deemed to be compliant or largely compliant on only nine out of 16 core standards.

Moneyval provided ammunition for other banks and the crunch came when regulators turned to Deutsche Bank, the German financial powerhouse. Its Italian subsidiary had managed the Vatican City’s 80 cash machines and credit card payment services since 1997. In the summer of 2012, the Bank of Italy began questioning Deutsche about whether it possessed a licence to operate cash machines for the Vatican state. The central bank said that the Vatican was not compliant with international rules; was Deutsche breaking the law by servicing the ATMs? The Bank of Italy then sent another letter, seen by the FT, that ordered Deutsche Bank to close its accounts with the Vatican bank by the end of the year.

Deutsche did what regulators had hoped it would. On January 1 2013, a peak holiday time, there were no ATMs functioning anywhere inside Vatican City. Lines of visitors to the Sistine Chapel were unable to enter unless they paid in cash. “The message sent was simple: if you want to participate in the modern world, you have to adopt modern rules,” says a senior banker at another correspondent bank.

In the waning days of his papacy, Benedict made appointments that would help steer the church towards some sort of financial resolution. He appointed Rene Bruelhart, a Swiss lawyer who made his name as the head of Liechtenstein’s ­financial intelligence unit, as head of the Vatican’s financial regulator. Among the pontiff’s last official decrees was to appoint a new Vatican bank chief, Ernst von Freyberg, a mergers and acquisitions banker and aristocratic German who in his spare time led pilgrims to the healing waters of Lourdes.

Bruelhart, the younger of the two men, was involved in the return of assets owned by the regime of Saddam Hussein to the new Iraqi government. He also helped to uncover the Siemens contract scandal of 2006, which involved bribery of government officials. This legal profile, combined with his crisp good looks, led some in the media to dub the 41-year-old the James Bond of the financial world.

Bruelhart worked swiftly to restore ATM services in Vatican City. By February 12, he had engaged Aduno Group, a Swiss ­company, to take over operation of the cash machines, neatly circumventing Italian and EU regulatory pressures.

In March 2013, there was a new pope – a Jesuit evoking the poverty and humility of St Francis of Assisi – and he quickly set a tone on financial correctness. Pope Francis spoke out against the “idolatry of money”, “all-encompassing corruption” and “tax evasion that had reached global dimensions”. Behind the scenes, he sent out another sign: Pope Francis moved his ­personal residence away from the Apostolic Palace and the Vatican bank.

Francis also began issuing papal decrees that helped speed inspections and made changes within the upper ranks of the cardinals. According to Bank of Italy sources, the new pope “marked important steps toward real reform of the legal and institutional framework”. Backed by Francis, the Financial Information Authority was strengthened with broader powers of supervision.

The pope had also asked for a review of the bank’s activities and appointed two boards made up of senior clergy and lay bankers to give advice regarding the future of the institution so that “it was in harmonization with the mission of the Catholic Church”, according to Vatican statements.

So far, Bruelhart and von Freyberg have complemented each other in their approach to reform, insiders say. Bruelhart quickly set up a crisis management team to review accounts and track money transfers. Within months of the two financial outsiders arriving, Sutherland flew in from London to discuss the virtues of transparency with the cardinals.

Before the meeting, Sutherland went into the dining hall of the Doma Santa Marta. Pope Francis was also there, eating breakfast, according to a witness. “I could not believe my eyes. I thought this is impossible,” says this person. “The pope in one corner and one of the world’s best-known bankers in the other.”

By this summer, von Freyberg had sought out Promontory Financial, a global risk-control group that specialises in regulatory and compliance issues. Promontory’s contract, according to von Freyberg, costs “well above seven digits”.

On a bright morning in late October, nine Promontory Financial employees sat in an office beneath a painting of the crucifixion of Christ, sorting through computer scans of account holders’ passports. They were manually and methodically cross-checking the names and faces with newly filled-in bank forms. Promontory employees now comprise 25 per cent of the staff of the Vatican bank, according to the Vatican.

Next door sat Rolando Marranci, a former chief financial officer for BNP Paribas’s Italian subsidiary and now the Vatican bank’s new director-general. He was hired in the wake of the arrest of Scarano, the Vatican accountant.

By next year, these new employees are expected to have closed hundreds of bank accounts listed in the Vatican ledgers, according to people familiar with the situation. Vatican bank officials say it will take well into next year to review them all. Accounts are being targeted when a client has been found to no longer have links to the Holy See. Where accounts are missing basic information or a client is found not to have such links, those accounts have been handed over to Bruelhart and his team. Bruelhart then judges whether to close these accounts when he reviews them in the light of the Vatican’s new, stricter anti-money laundering rules, according to bank insiders.

Both Bruelhart and von Freyberg have tried to calm internal fears about the Vatican’s suspected links to money laundering. Its volume of transactions – about €2bn in and out annually – is too small to be much of a threat, say people familiar with their thinking. But suspicions remain that the bank may have been a refuge for tax cheats from Italy, which European officials admit has a problem with tax evasion.

Bankers familiar with the transition between popes describe the past year as marking an epochal change. The Vatican hierarchy is taking steps to appoint experienced regulators to head a new, prudential supervisor, Vatican insiders say. Big Four auditors are looking at its accounts. The Vatican bank staff was once dominated by Italians; now it is opening its doors to foreign bankers with global experience. The clean-up has also extended to enhanced oversight of the Vatican’s treasury, known as the Administration of the Patrimony of the Apostolic See (Apsa), which controls the Catholic Church’s real estate portfolio and oversees holdings of government bonds. Sutherland and fellow international financier Bob McCann, chief executive of UBS Americas, are listed as two of five “consultors” or advisers at Apsa, according to a 2013 Vatican directory. The Vatican announced in October that its consultors would become part of a newly created supervisory board. Neither man would respond to questions about the board but there is work to be done there as well.

A handful of current accounts was recently discovered within Apsa – to the surprise of auditors and Vatican officials – and they are in the process of being moved to the Vatican bank, according to people with direct knowledge of the events. The very existence of these accounts is yet another sign, these people say, of how the financial system operated for years without any clear rules.

More changes are ahead. Bruelhart has signed a memorandum of understanding to swap information on suspicious transactions with the US, Italy, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Slovenia, and it has another 15 to 20 in the pipeline. He has also reached out to the Egmont Group, an informal network of national financial intelligence units that swaps information about suspicious transactions, according to the Vatican.

There is a cautious sense of optimism among technical ­advisers in Rome and beyond. But they admit that there is still tension between the high priests of finance and the Vatican. “It is a case of political will in the end,” says an adviser to the bank. “Though what is happening here is surprisingly unpolitical. This is about IT and handbooks, and staff training and processes and fact-checking.”

How far the Vatican reforms go depends on the man at the top. Named after a saint who was plain-spoken and happy with simple pursuits, Pope Francis’s approach so far has inspired the bank investigators to work some long and late hours. For them, his early reflections on what banking should be – in this bejewelled city of saints and sinners, or anywhere in the world – is worthy of some meditation. “Some say the best thing is to have a bank, others say it should be a relief fund, other recommend it be closed down,” Pope Francis said in July. “I trust the work the [Vatican bank] team is doing . . . But whether it’s a bank, a fund, a whatever, it should be based on transparency and honesty.”

In Italy, there is a sense that Pope Francis, a native of Argentina, was chosen in part because he was an outsider. He understands that the Vatican’s insular nature has hurt the image of the Catholic Church and raised concerns about its relevance. His papacy will be a mission to prove that the church remains a touchstone for morality – and, to some observers, he has defined the bank scandal as an opportunity.

Massimo Faggioli, an academic and author from Bologna who has studied the Vatican for the past 20 years, says that other pontiffs in his lifetime had no reason to think that the bank was important to the outside world. But now it is – and Francis, by speaking out about it early, has signalled its importance. “Pope John Paul II didn’t touch the bank because it served his purpose of funding Solidarity from the Vatican. Pope Benedict did not touch it because he had no interest in controlling it,” says Faggioli. “Pope Francis is different because he knows the damage that has been done to the credibility of the church by this very small bank and its history of scandals.”

More questions of modernity also will test the church: ongoing paedophilia scandals, the role of women, the possibility that priests may marry. For now it seems the newest occupant of St Peter’s throne wants the church to set an example and do what most everyday people must: get its finances straight.

Dienstag, 24. September 2013

Warum man die ÖVP als KATHOLIK nicht wählen darf am kommenden Sonntag.



1) Weil hohe Vetreter (LH Pröll) vor laufenden Kameras Priester beleidigen
2) Weil die övp die Homoehe eingeführt hat
3) Weil die övp für die anti-christliche EU ist
4) Weil die övp nach der wahl wieder mit einer partei koalieren wird, die den prä-natalen Kindermord ("Fristenlösung") in österreich eingeführt hat.
5) Weil ehemalige Mitglieder dieser Partei verurteilt sind wegen schlimmen Formen der Korruption (Herr Strasser, ehemaliger övp innenminister).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2MLSZeEoUM

Sonntag, 8. September 2013

Gebetsvigil für den Frieden in Syrien (Papst Franzikus, VII.IX.MMXIII, Rom zu St.Peter )





Unten im youtube-link: Die Lauretanische Litanei aus der gestrigen Gebetsvigil für den Frieden in Syrien mit unserem Heiligen Vater, Seiner Heiligkeit, Papst Franziskus. Ich habe selten etwas so bewegendes gesehen. Schade, das ich nicht direkt auf dem Petersplatz dabei sein konnte.

Es war eine sehr würdevolle, eindrucksvolle (man staune!) TRADITIONELLE Zeremonie mit Veni Creator Spiritus, Freudenreichem Rosenkranz, Salve Regina, Lauretanischer Litanei, Ubi caritas est, Adoro te devote, Aussetzung des Allerheiligsten, Verbrennung von Weihrauch-Opfergaben ... fast 4 Stunden Zeremonie! Es war als würde Papst Franziskus alle Mächte des Himmels beschwören wollen für den Frieden in Syrien!

Und völlig ignoriert von den westlichen Medien (BBC,ARD,ORF,CNN..). Wenn Papst Pius XII im September 1939 eine Gebetsvigil für den Frieden mit 100'000 Gläubigen abgehalten hätte, hätte man ihn dann so hinterhältig totgeschwiegen im Westen? Was ist nur mit unserer Welt los?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6navny-4eH8&feature=c4-overview&list=UUpkByCz9LLnKq9OZCxxWFgQ


Sonntag, 25. August 2013

OVID, Tristia, 1, 4, 5 - 16



Me miserum ! Quantis increscunt aequora ventis,
eruta ex imis fervet arena vadis !
Monte nec inferior prorae puppive recurvae
insilit et pictos verberat unda deos.
Pinea texta sonant, pulsi stridore rudentes,
ingemit et nostris ipsa carina malis.
Navita confessus gelidum pallore timorem,
iam sequitur victus, non regit arte ratem
utque parum validus non proficientia rector
cervicis rigidae frena remittit equo,
sic, non quo voluit, sed quo rapit impetus undae,
aurigam video vela dedisse rati.



OVID, Tristia, 1, 4, 5 - 16

Sonntag, 7. Juli 2013

6th anniversary of Summorum Pontificum - No impact in my world




Today on the 7th July 2013 we celebrate 6 years since the motu proprio "summorum pontificum" (SP) of Pope Benedict XVI, with which he freely allowed the celebration of the Traditional Latin Mass (TLM) according to the Missal of the blessed John XXIII (Missal of 1962). This means that the celebrating priest no longer requires permission of the local bishop as was prescribed in the motu proprio "Ecclesia Dei" of the blessed Pope John Paul II. Additionaly SP foresaw the establishment of personal parishes for the faithful attached to the TLM. Pope Benedict also stated in SP that the TLM was never abrogated i.e. abolished, a very important statement from a traditional Catholic point of view.

I thought six years was a good time to analyze whether SP had any impact. From a humble perspective I wanted to analyze this for my world, not for the whole world, as I do not have the TLM statistics readily available for the whole Catholic world. I define "my world" as all the cities I have lived in so far. These are 1) in Switzerland: Zurich, Luzern, Basel and Bottmingen 2) in Germany: Munich 3) in the United Kingdom: London and finally, 4) in my home country Austria: Linz and Vienna.

Additionally I thought it makes more sense to look for regular TLMs on Sundays and Holy Days of Obligation as well as at the establishment of personal parishes. So I did not consider the odd mass on one Thursday per month or something similar, because these irregular masses do not lead to a build up of a stable group of faithful. Also, I did not consider TLMs celebrated by the Priestly Fraternity of St. Pius X. (FSSPX), because the FSSPX, while being part of the Catholic Church, is canonically irregular and hence not impacted by either "Eclessia Dei" or SP.

Let us start with the analysis in Switzerland, in the city of Zürich. Before and after SP there is a Sunday TLM in Zürich-Oerlikon (Herz Jesu Church), run by the Priestly Fraternity of St. Peter (FSSP). No change. Apparently this TLMs is now associated with a personal parish "St. Maximilian Kolbe", which is beautiful
but in terms of the Mass itself, no change. And this Sunday TLM is still at 5 pm. So no change. Lets move to Luzern. There the Sunday TLM is in the "Sentikirche" at 9:50 am, and this has not changed since SP. In Basel, there is a Sunday TLM with the FSSP at 10:30 in St. Anton church run by the FSSP and one in St. Joseph church at 5 pm celebrated by the Institute of Christ the King (ICRSS). Both have not changed since SP. Bottmingen lies in the canton Basel Land. In the whole canton Basel Land there is not a single Sunday TLM. This is also unchanged since the TLM.

In Munich there is one Sunday TLM in the St. Anna church (Damenstift) at 8:45 am and this has not changed since SP. In London there is of course the BromptonOratory where there is a Sunday TLM at 9 am and in St. James Church (Spanish Place) at 9:30 am. Both churches are not personal parishes for the TLM and offer also the novus ordo mass. In large cities like Munich or London one would have thought that at least there, the TLM personal parish as foreseen in SP by Pope Benedict XVI, would be implemented. But this is affirmatively not the case. Certainly the TLM in the Brompton Oratory was there before. Perhaps the TLM
in the St. James church is new. So maybe a small change in London, but I am not sure.

Finally, Austria. In Linz, there is as there always was, a TLM in the Minoriten church. This TLM actually was there all the time since the novus ordo was introduced by Pope Paul VI. in 1969 since the local priest simply refused to celebrate the novus ordo. Later this mass was taken over by the FSSP. There are even two TLMs every Sunday morning. A low mass at 8:30 am and a sung high mass at 10:30 am. In Vienna the FSSP are also strong and they offer the 6 pm mass in the Capuchine Church above the Imperial crypt since many years . It seems however that they now also offer a Sunday morning mass in the Church of St. Peter and Paul (3rd district). I believe this TLM to be new and perhaps due to SP. However it is a long time since I lived in Vienna so I cannot say for sure.

So in conclusion I have to say, at least in my world, summorum pontificum had no impact. This is a sad thing to say on the sixth anniversary of this important document, but it is the truth.

What could be the reason? One reason is certainly that the traditional faithful are not united. The Ecclesia Dei groups such as ICRSS and FSSP are not united in some cities like Basel there are even two  small TLMs competing with each other instead of uniting into one personal parish. And in addition the Ecclesia Dei groups are fighting with the FSSPX, the largest traditional group in terms of priests.

Another reason is, although Pope Benedict XVI. wanted the change, 90% of the bishops do not want to see an increase in the traditional mass. Already before the very unfortunate resignation of Pope Benedict, the talks of the FSSPX and the Vatican had ground to halt due to the appointment of Bishop Müller of Regensburg, an arch-enemy of the traditional mass, to the position of head of the congregation for the doctrine of the faith. The CDF is also responsible for the papal commission "Ecclesia Dei" and the talks with the FSSPX. Of course there will be no further impact of SP in the pontificate of Francis, as Francis, when he was archbishop of Buenos Aires, did actually prevent the implementation of SP.

There are difficult times ahead.

Let us hope and pray for the Traditional Latin Mass.




Samstag, 25. Mai 2013

Islam is not a peaceful religion



"Show me just what Muhammad brought that was new and there you will find things only bad and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached."



His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI. 
(quoting Byzantine Emperor Manuel II Palailogos)

University of Regensburg, 12th September 2006

Link to violent Q'ran verses
http://conservativecolloquium.wordpress.com/2008/03/11/violent-and-intolerant-quran-verses/

Samstag, 4. Mai 2013

Schikanen im Österreichischen Konsulat Basel.


Auslandsösterreicher tritt ein, um einen neuen Reisepass für seinen 13-Jährigen Sohn zu beantragen. Er hat sich vorher auf der Website des österreichischen Aussenministeriums eingehend informiert, welche Dokumente mitzubringen sind. Also legt er folgende Dokumente vor:

1) Seinen österreichischen Reisepass
2) Reisepass seines Sohnes
3) Seinen Schweizer Ausländerausweis
4) Schweizer Ausländerausweis seines Sohnes
5) Geburtsurkunde seines Sohnes
6) Heiratsurkunde 
7) Beglaubigte Übersetzung der Heiratsurkunde
8) Staatsbürgerschaftsnachweis seines Sohnes
9) Passfotos in der Größe 4,5 x 3,5 cm
10) Personenstandserklärung seines Sohnes 
11) Antrag für den neuen Reisepass, unterschrieben von ihm und seinem Sohn unterschrieben
12) CHF 130,40 Konsular- und Passgebühr

Ihm wird mitgeteilt, das der Passantrag nicht behandelt werden kann, da

1) Personenstandserklärung ungültig, da nicht das richtige Formular verwendet wurde
2) Passphotos sind ungültig, da der Sohn auf dem Photo gelächelt hat und Zähne zu sehen sind, außerdem steht er ganz leicht geneigt und nicht völlig frontal
3) Neue Passphotos, EU konform, sind anzufertigen (CHF 40)
4) Ausländerausweis des Vaters als Wohnsitzbescheinigung ungültig, obwohl der Schweizer Ausländer-ausweis die Wohnadresse explizit aufführt.
5) Ausländerausweis des Sohnes als Wohnsitzbescheinigung ungültig, obwohl der Schweizer Ausländer-ausweis die Wohnadresse explizit aufführt.
6) Der schulpflichtige Sohn muss persönlich erscheinen, zur Abnahme von Fingerabdrücken
7) Der Vater muss bei seiner Schweizer Wohngemeinde eine Wohnsitzbescheinigung einholen (CHF 20)
8) Der Sohn muss bei seiner Schweizer Wohngemeinde eine Wohnsitzbescheinigung einholen (CHF 20)

Danke, liebe Republik Österreich! Es macht immer wieder Freude, Euer Bürger zu sein. Großartig auch, das Ihr die 400 Jahre alte barocke Bürokratie, statt Sie zu reformieren um zusätzliche EU-Schikanen erweitert habt.

Österreicher zu sein, ist wahrhaft, ein Luxus, den man sich leisten können muss.Wie lange können wir uns diesen Luxus noch leisten?

Mittwoch, 3. April 2013

Papst Franzikus ist ein Rotarier




S. Heiligkeit Papst Franzikus ist ein Rotarier (Mitglied des Clubs Buenos Aires seit 1999, 2005 mit dem silbernen Lorbeerblatt ausgezeichnet). Das ist beunruhigend, da viele Rotarier Freimaurer sind und man die Rotarier mit Recht als Vorfeldorganisation der Freimaurer bezeichnen kann. Das zeigt sich schon im radikal säkulären/säkularistischen Auftritt dieser Organisation. Ich dachte eigentlich, erster Papst der Jesuit ist, genügt, aber erster Papst der Rotarier ist, ist ein bisschen viel. Immerhin sind Freimaurer seit der Bulle des Papstes Clemens XII. "in eminenti" automatisch exkommuniziert. Natürlich sind auch die Kardinäle Marx (München), Lehmann (Mainz) sowie der Bischof Algermissen Rotarier. Sie haben Kard. Bergoglio wohl auch im Konklave 2013 gewählt. Der Rauch der Freimaurerei im Konklave? Der "Theologe" Küng ist übrigens auch Rotarier und hat sich sehr über die Wahl Bergoglios gefreut? Ich erkenne ein Muster.....

Donnerstag, 14. März 2013

Omnia instaurare in Christo



In dem Moment, als ich das Bild heute sah, wo Seine Eminenz Kardinal Bergoglio niederkniet und die Füssen dieses krebskanken vom Tod gezeichneten Kindes im Rollstuhl küsst, wusste ich mit Sicherheit das gestern im Konklave der heilige Geist wirklich gewirkt hat. Unser hl. Vater hat in diesem Kind und seinem Leiden den gekreuzigten Christus gesehen und all sein Leid als Er sich hingab für unsere Sünden. Dieser grosse Priester wird wieder Christus in den Mittelpunkt der Kirche stellen getreu dem Motto des heiligen Papstes Pius X: "Omnia instaurare in Christo". Er wird niemanden ausgrenzen, auch nicht die Piusbruderschaft. Ich erwarte mir einen konservativen Reformpapst ganz in der Form des heiligen Pius X. der, wie Papst Franz, aus armen Verhältnissen kommend keinen Sinn für Statussymbole und zuviel Pomp hatte und gleichzeit aber die Fehler der Moderne verurteilte und den Blick klar auf Christus richtete.

Mittwoch, 13. März 2013

Bold prediction and updated probabilities

My current prediction for the conclave: an early run-off between Scherer and Scola, both get burned in the process and Cardinals realize they both don't have much charism. After that, strong candidates with deep faith suddenly emerge: Bagnasco, O'Malley and Burke. One of those three, most likely O'Malley (10% currently) is elected the 265th successor to St. Peter.



Dienstag, 12. März 2013

TOP 20 Papal Candidates

(Source: centurioweblog.blogspot.ch , 11.3.2013, 23:00)
Cardinal Country Probability 
Angelo Scola Italy 19.75%
Odilo Scherer Brazil 11.11%
Peter Turkson Ghana 9.88%
Marc Ouellet Canada 4.44%
Gianfranco Ravasi Italy 3.17%
Seán Patrick O'Malley United States 3.17%
Raymond Leo Burke United States 2.78%
Luis Antonio Tagle Philippines 2.22%
Timothy M. Dolan United States 2.22%
Angelo Bagnasco Italy 1.78%
Leonardo Sandri Argentina 1.78%
Mauro Piacenza Italy 1.11%
Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga Honduras 1.11%
Philippe Barbarin France 1.11%
Thomas Christopher Collins Canada 1.11%
Wilfrid Napier South Africa 1.11%
Jorge Bergoglio Argentina 0.89%
Antonio Cañizares Llovera Spain 0.67%
Béchara Boutros Raï Lebanon 0.67%
Agostino Vallini Italy 0.67%

Tonights update of my top 20 Papal probabilities. Amazing: Card. Raymond Leo Burke has shot up (from practically nowhere) to place number 7. Also Sean O Malley OFM Cap has risen in rank order to number 6, whereas Odilo Scherer has replaced Turkson as No.2 (despite his Sacrilege in the Laetare Mass yesterday in Rome - Cathcon has reported). The mathematical algorithm for calculating probabilities is unchanged, I simply updated the odds sourced from paddypower.com @ 11 pm CET.

Happy conclusion: The US-American Cardinals are now definitely in the Game and will play an important part in the conclave. Globalisation in the Church does not jump in leaps and bounds but moves rather from Italy to Poland to Germany to US?

Montag, 11. März 2013

Probabilities of Papal Names


Sonntag, 10. März 2013

What does the 2005 conclave tell us?


voting patterns of the 2005 conclave
sources: wikipedia.it, and M. Politi "Benedikt, Krise eines Pontifikats", Rotbuch Verlag Berlin 2012.

As we put our minds to the upcoming conclave in terms of "game theory" it is important to recall the two most recent instances in 2005 and 1978. Lets start with the 2005 conclave.


Martini SJ (+) was an early candidate of the progressives in the first ballot, however already by the 2nd vote the progressives lost confidence and did not vote for Martini, switching to Bergoglio SJ as a more likely anti-Ratzinger, more moderately progressive candidate. However in the end the neoconservatives won out and Ratzinger was elected with 84 votes, 7 votes more than the 2/3 majority needed.

Of course, according to "universi dominici gregis", an absolute majority after 34 ballots would have been sufficient as well, however only after 4 ballots the decision was reached. No one did want to go to 34 ballots. This rule has been abolished by Benedikt XVI. and now the 2/3 majority rule is again the key point to keep in mind. This means that this time, if there is a block of 40 Cardinal-Electors, they can block the majority candidate.

This time the conservative candidate is most likely to be Card. Scola and the progressive candidate Card. Scherer. If Scherer can have a block of 40 votes, he can block Scola, and a compromise candidate would have to emerge. Who would that compromise candidate be?