CENTURIO

Background of the Forecast On May 7, 2025, I released a data-driven forecast titled “What do prediction markets say about the next Pope?” ...

by Dr. Robert F. Siegmund, MBA Basel, 7 May 2025 Introduction On May 7 th , the cardinal electors will enter the conclave to choose t...

Cardinal Probabilities Methodology This analysis combines data from three sources — Paddy Power (PP), Ladbrokes (LB), and Polymarket (PM) — ...

In order to measure the burden of asylum seekers for individual countries I use the following statistic: the   annualized monthly rate of...

For a while and because the public debate in Austria is dominated by this topic I have sought a way to compare the burden of asylum seeke...