Sonntag, 6. Juli 2014

Traditional priests in France until 2050

Based on a suggestion by Christopher Gillibrand, I decided to apply the forecast method used for global numbers of priests to the dramatic situation in France. First I obtained the latest values for ordinations, which is 96 and the total number of priests in France, which is 14000, from the website of the French Bishops conference (1). I also got the information from a different source (2) that the average age of the current 14000 priests is 75. Therefore I assumed a still optimistic retirement rate r of 20% for this group.
From the various sources quoted in the previous post on the traditional groups of priests I obtained the percentage of those traditional priests currently based in France, as shown in table 1.
Table 1
I applied those percentages on the forecast of the number of traditional priests as shown in the previous posts.

It is obvious from the above values that there will be a catastrophic decline in the number of non-traditional diocesan priests in France. The interesting result is that by the year 2038, traditional priests will outnumber priests celebrating the new mass. See chart 1.
Chart 1
Another chart is very impressive in this regard, it shows the % of priests in France that will be traditional during the forecast period. This number increases from 2% in 2014 to 56% in the dynamic of an S-shaped curve. The S-shape is by the way very characteristic of introduction ("diffusion") of innovative or ground-breaking ideas. Quite an irony that the traditional mass will be the innovation that replaces the dying former "innovation" of the new mass. See chart 2.

Chart 2

So in conclusion, if the Roman Catholic faith will be saved from secularism in France, it will be the achievement of the traditional groups of priests celebrating the Traditional Mass such as FSSPX, FSSP and ICRSS.