Cardinal Probabilities

Methodology

This analysis combines data from three sources — Paddy Power (PP), Ladbrokes (LB), and Polymarket (PM) — to estimate the likelihood of each cardinal becoming the next Pope. The data was extracted on May 5, 2025 at 12:30 CET.

• Implied probabilities were derived from fractional odds (PP and LB), or taken directly from market estimates (PM).
• Blended Probability (P₍b₎) is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the available probabilities across the three sources.
• If a candidate was listed by only one or two sources, the average is based on those values. Missing data is not treated as zero.
• The chart ranks the top 20 cardinals by this blended probability.
• The total of all blended probabilities exceeds 100% (204%) due to the overround built into bookmaker markets. Each source includes profit margins, so when combined without normalization, the resulting sum reflects the aggregation of multiple independent market views. This approach preserves the absolute strength of top candidates across sources.
• Data extraction and calculations and data graphic done with GPT4o

Results

Name                     | Blended Probability

--------------------------|--------------------

Pietro Parolin           | 27.41%

Luis Antonio Tagle       | 23.89%

Peter Turkson            | 14.33%

Matteo Zuppi             | 14.23%

Pierbattista Pizzaballa  | 11.83%

Peter Erdo               | 9.55%

Robert Sarah             | 6.59%

Giovanni Battista        | 4.56%

Cristobal Lopez Romero   | 4.10%

Kevin Farrell            | 3.90%

Jose Tolentino           | 3.85%

Claudio Gugerotti        | 3.40%

Raymond Leo Burke        | 3.40%

Mario Grech              | 3.37%

Jean-Marc Aveline        | 3.07%

Mykola Bychok            | 2.94%

Robert Francis Prevost   | 2.94%

Lazarus You Heung-sik    | 2.91%

Reinhard Marx            | 2.91%

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | 2.76%

Angelo Bagnasco          | 2.45%

Timothy Dolan            | 2.45%

Timothy Radcliffe        | 2.44%

Jean-Claude Hollerich    | 2.22%

Fernando Filoni          | 2.20%

Konrad Krajewski         | 2.20%

Vincent Nichols          | 2.20%

Wilton Daniel Gregory    | 2.20%

Antonio Cañizares Llovera| 1.97%

Carlos Aguiar Retes      | 1.97%

Jack McDonald            | 1.97%

Augusto Paolo Lojudice   | 1.96%

Blase Joseph Cupich      | 1.96%

Gerhard Ludwig Müller    | 1.96%

Joao Braz de Aviz        | 1.96%

Joseph Tobin             | 1.96%

Mauro Gambetti           | 1.96%

Wim Eijk                 | 1.96%

Dominik Duka             | 1.73%

Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga| 1.73%

Sean Patrick O'Malley    | 1.73%

Charles Maung Bo         | 1.64%

Francis Arinze           | 1.63%

Malcolm Ranjith          | 1.63%

Marc Ouellet             | 1.63%

Bechara Peter Rai        | 1.60%

Angelo De Donatis        | 1.49%

Francisco Ortega         | 1.49%

Gerald Cyprien Lacroix   | 1.49%

John Dew                 | 1.49%

Lauro Tisi               | 1.49%

Leonardo Steiner         | 1.49%

Michael Czerny           | 1.49%

Odilo Pedro Scherer      | 1.49%

Wilfrid Napier           | 1.49%

Anders Arborelius        | 1.48%

Mauro Piacenza           | 1.48%

Angelo Scola             | 1.47%

Gianfranco Ravasi        | 1.36%

Baldassare Reina         | 1.25%

Arthur Roche             | 1.24%

Daniel Sturla            | 0.99%

Dominique Mathieu        | 0.99%