by Dr. Robert F. Siegmund, MBA
Basel, 7 May 2025
Introduction
On May 7th, the cardinal electors will enter the conclave to choose the next pope.
As a Traditionalist Catholic, I follow this process with particular concern—especially in light of Traditionis Custodes, the motu proprio issued by the late pope aimed at restricting the Traditional Latin Mass (TLM).
Since cardinal electors are bound by secrecy under penalty of excommunication, no surveys or insider reports are available. However, prediction markets—such as Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and Polymarket—offer a data-driven alternative. These markets often outperform opinion polls in political forecasting.
While I do not believe prediction markets can forecast the exact individual who will be elected—given the high number of candidates (133) and the substantial information asymmetry—I do believe they can shed light on broader patterns, such as:
- What faction is most likely to produce the next pope? (Progressive, Moderate, Conservative, or Traditionalist)
- Will he be supportive, indifferent, or opposed to the Traditional Latin Mass?
- Do Traditionalists need to prepare for further restrictions?
This analysis aims to address those questions using prediction-market data.
Methodology
Probabilities were derived from three independent prediction markets: Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and Polymarket.
For each cardinal:
- Implied probabilities were calculated based on the market odds.
- If a cardinal appeared in multiple markets, I averaged the probabilities.
- These values were blended into a unified dataset and then renormalized so the total probability equaled 100%.
Next, each cardinal was classified along three key dimensions using GPT-4o’s Deep Search feature to analyze official Church sources and blog commentary:
- Faction: Progressive, Moderate, Conservative, or Traditionalist
- View on the Traditional Latin Mass: Supportive, Indifferent, or Opposed
This allows us to estimate not only who is most likely to be elected, but what kind of pope he will be.
The 20 Most Likely Cardinals to Be Elected Pope
Top 20 Cardinals by Key Dimensions
What the Next Pope Will Most Likely Be
Based on the blended prediction-market probabilities and the category analysis:
- The next pope will most likely be moderate.
- The next pope will most likely be indifferent to the Latin Mass.
Conclusions
- Prediction markets do not allow us to predict who will be elected pope, due to the large number of candidates (133) and significant information asymmetry.
- They do allow us to predict the type of pope most likely to emerge.
- The next pope will be a moderate who is indifferent to the Traditional Latin Mass.
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