Freitag, 4. Juli 2014

The number of traditional priests up to 2050

Using available statistical data from the center for applied research in the apostolate (1) and from various sources on the traditional institutes of priests (2), I have put together forecasts on the future number of priests until the year 2050. In order to put these forecasts together I used the simple iterative formula

n (t+1) = n (t) * (1 - r) + o

where n(t+1) is the number of priests in the next year, n(t) is the number of priests in the current year, r is the rate of retirement or priests per year expressed in percent of all priests, and o is the number of ordinations of new priests each year. I was able to obtain the total number of priests as well as the number of ordinations from the sources mentioned above and input into the formula. For the retirement rate I assumed 2.5% which equals to 40 active years for a priest this means that every year 1/40 of all priests becomes inactive. I did all calculations for the individual orders of traditional priests, then summed them up to all traditional priests. I also did the calculation for all priests (currently 414,313) according to the CARA data (1).

Please see table 1 for the input values
Table 1

Here are some of the results in Chart 1.
Chart 1
Chart 1 shows that the Society of St. Pius X (FSSPX) will remain the largest traditional institute, growing to over 900 priests by 2050. Two other large groups of priests are Society of St. Peter (FSSP) which will reach almost 400 priests by 2050 and the Institute of Christ the King (ICRSS) which will reach over 200 priests by 2050. Smaller groups that will not reach 100 priest by 2050 are the Institute du Bon Pasteur (IBP) and the Personal Apostolic Administration of St. John Marie Vianney.

Chart 2

Chart 2 shows that the total number of traditional priests will exceed 1000 for the first time in 2016 in the very near future and reach over 1600 by 2050.

While this growth is impressive, the total number of traditional priests in relation to the total number of priests will remain small, as one can see in the next chart, chart 3.
Chart 3
The total number of priests world-wide will fall from 414,000 to about 323,000 in the period up to 2050. In total the percentage of traditional priests as % of total priests will more than double from 0.23% to 0.5%. However, the number of traditional priests will still remain small (0.5%) in relation to all priests. All this is shown in chart 4.
Chart 4

All these forecasts did not assume any additional events or acceleration or deceleration in the variables used. Clearly, the current rate of formation of traditional priests is completely insufficient, if we want to see that the Traditional Mass and the Traditional Sacraments once completely replace those of the Novus Ordo. Even in 2050 the Novus Ordo would win 99 : 1. More work and more prayer is needed.

(1)   CARA
2.1) (FSSP)
2.2)  (ICRSS)
2.3) (FSSPX)
2.4) (IBP)
2.5) Annuario Pontifico 2012 (PAAJMV)