Donnerstag, 14. März 2013
Eingestellt von Centurio um 19:05
Mittwoch, 13. März 2013
My current prediction for the conclave: an early run-off between Scherer and Scola, both get burned in the process and Cardinals realize they both don't have much charism. After that, strong candidates with deep faith suddenly emerge: Bagnasco, O'Malley and Burke. One of those three, most likely O'Malley (10% currently) is elected the 265th successor to St. Peter.
Eingestellt von Centurio um 00:08
Dienstag, 12. März 2013
|(Source: centurioweblog.blogspot.ch , 11.3.2013, 23:00)|
|Seán Patrick O'Malley||United States||3.17%|
|Raymond Leo Burke||United States||2.78%|
|Luis Antonio Tagle||Philippines||2.22%|
|Timothy M. Dolan||United States||2.22%|
|Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga||Honduras||1.11%|
|Thomas Christopher Collins||Canada||1.11%|
|Wilfrid Napier||South Africa||1.11%|
|Antonio Cañizares Llovera||Spain||0.67%|
|Béchara Boutros Raï||Lebanon||0.67%|
Tonights update of my top 20 Papal probabilities. Amazing: Card. Raymond Leo Burke has shot up (from practically nowhere) to place number 7. Also Sean O Malley OFM Cap has risen in rank order to number 6, whereas Odilo Scherer has replaced Turkson as No.2 (despite his Sacrilege in the Laetare Mass yesterday in Rome - Cathcon has reported). The mathematical algorithm for calculating probabilities is unchanged, I simply updated the odds sourced from paddypower.com @ 11 pm CET.
Happy conclusion: The US-American Cardinals are now definitely in the Game and will play an important part in the conclave. Globalisation in the Church does not jump in leaps and bounds but moves rather from Italy to Poland to Germany to US?
Eingestellt von Centurio um 00:13
Sonntag, 10. März 2013
voting patterns of the 2005 conclave
sources: wikipedia.it, and M. Politi "Benedikt, Krise eines Pontifikats", Rotbuch Verlag Berlin 2012.
As we put our minds to the upcoming conclave in terms of "game theory" it is important to recall the two most recent instances in 2005 and 1978. Lets start with the 2005 conclave.
Martini SJ (+) was an early candidate of the progressives in the first ballot, however already by the 2nd vote the progressives lost confidence and did not vote for Martini, switching to Bergoglio SJ as a more likely anti-Ratzinger, more moderately progressive candidate. However in the end the neoconservatives won out and Ratzinger was elected with 84 votes, 7 votes more than the 2/3 majority needed.
Of course, according to "universi dominici gregis", an absolute majority after 34 ballots would have been sufficient as well, however only after 4 ballots the decision was reached. No one did want to go to 34 ballots. This rule has been abolished by Benedikt XVI. and now the 2/3 majority rule is again the key point to keep in mind. This means that this time, if there is a block of 40 Cardinal-Electors, they can block the majority candidate.
This time the conservative candidate is most likely to be Card. Scola and the progressive candidate Card. Scherer. If Scherer can have a block of 40 votes, he can block Scola, and a compromise candidate would have to emerge. Who would that compromise candidate be?
Eingestellt von Centurio um 23:59
|TOP 20 Papal Probabilities|
|Luis Antonio Tagle||Philippines||2.32%|
|Timothy M. Dolan||United States||2.32%|
|Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga||Honduras||1.41%|
|Wilfrid Napier||South Africa||1.41%|
|Seán Patrick O'Malley||United States||1.41%|
|Béchara Boutros Raï||Lebanon||0.70%|
|Antonio Cañizares Llovera||Spain||0.70%|
|João Braz de Aviz||Brazil||0.58%|
Update to method:
Updated with paddypower.com odds (10.3.,23:00), took out failed curial administrators such as card. bertone and card.levada set to 0%, also all cardinals from de,at,ch, and cee (poland, slovenia, croatia, hungary, czech rep.) set to 0% because after woytila/ratzinger there will be no more german or cee pope for a while.
Eingestellt von Centurio um 23:09
METHOD: I did the following. I took the odds for each Cardinal being elected pope from paddypower.com (March 9,18:30 CET), cleaned out those who are not Cardinal-Electors (quite surprising how many had to be cleaned out). For those Cardinals where paddypower did not give a probability I assumed 1/115. Then I set the probabilities for all German speaking Cardinal-Electors to 0%, and gave an age bonus to all Cardinal-Electors below 80 doubling the probability of the youngest (53 years of age, Cardinal Cleemis, India) and then a sliding scale to no increase in probability for the oldest (Card. Severino Poletto). All those probabilities where then re-normalized to a total of 100%.
Method: I used the list of Cardinal-Electors who have celebrated a Traditional Latin Mass (source: Catholic Church Conservation Blog) as an indication of Tradition-Friendliness and applied that to the probabilities derived as described before.
|TOP 20 Papal Probabilities (source: centurioweblog.blogspot.com, 9.3.2013)|
|Luis Antonio Tagle||Philippines||2.02%|
|Timothy M. Dolan||United States||2.02%|
|Seán Patrick O'Malley||United States||1.22%|
|Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga||Honduras||1.22%|
|Wilfrid Napier||South Africa||1.22%|
|Antonio Cañizares Llovera||Spain||0.61%|
|Béchara Boutros Raï||Lebanon||0.61%|
|Malcolm Ranjith||Sri Lanka||0.50%|
|Probability of Tradition-Friendly Pope (=30.9 %)|
|Row Labels||Sum of P norm|
Eingestellt von Centurio um 01:27