| TOP 20 Papal Probabilities | ||
| (Source: centurioweblog.blogspot.com, 10.3.2013, 23:00) |
||
| Cardinal | Country | Probability (%) |
| Angelo Scola | Italy | 23.19% |
| Peter Turkson | Ghana | 11.59% |
| Odilo Scherer | Brazil | 6.62% |
| Marc Ouellet | Canada | 4.64% |
| Gianfranco Ravasi | Italy | 3.86% |
| Leonardo Sandri | Argentina | 2.32% |
| Angelo Bagnasco | Italy | 2.32% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 2.32% |
| Timothy M. Dolan | United States | 2.32% |
| Philippe Barbarin | France | 1.41% |
| Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga | Honduras | 1.41% |
| Wilfrid Napier | South Africa | 1.41% |
| Seán Patrick O'Malley | United States | 1.41% |
| Mauro Piacenza | Italy | 1.16% |
| Jorge Bergoglio | Argentina | 0.93% |
| Béchara Boutros Raï | Lebanon | 0.70% |
| Antonio Cañizares Llovera | Spain | 0.70% |
| George Pell | Australia | 0.58% |
| Cláudio Hummes | Brazil | 0.58% |
| João Braz de Aviz | Brazil | 0.58% |
Update to method:
Updated with paddypower.com odds (10.3.,23:00), took out failed curial administrators such as card. bertone and card.levada set to 0%, also all cardinals from de,at,ch, and cee (poland, slovenia, croatia, hungary, czech rep.) set to 0% because after woytila/ratzinger there will be no more german or cee pope for a while.
