Sonntag, 10. März 2013

Card. Scola still the front-runner

TOP 20 Papal Probabilities 
10.3.2013, 23:00)
Cardinal Country Probability (%)
Angelo Scola Italy 23.19%
Peter Turkson Ghana 11.59%
Odilo Scherer Brazil 6.62%
Marc Ouellet Canada 4.64%
Gianfranco Ravasi Italy 3.86%
Leonardo Sandri Argentina 2.32%
Angelo Bagnasco Italy 2.32%
Luis Antonio Tagle Philippines 2.32%
Timothy M. Dolan United States 2.32%
Philippe Barbarin France 1.41%
Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga Honduras 1.41%
Wilfrid Napier South Africa 1.41%
Seán Patrick O'Malley United States 1.41%
Mauro Piacenza Italy 1.16%
Jorge Bergoglio Argentina 0.93%
Béchara Boutros Raï Lebanon 0.70%
Antonio Cañizares Llovera Spain 0.70%
George Pell Australia 0.58%
Cláudio Hummes Brazil 0.58%
João Braz de Aviz Brazil 0.58%

Update to method:
Updated with odds (10.3.,23:00), took out failed curial administrators such as card. bertone and card.levada set to 0%, also all cardinals from de,at,ch, and cee (poland, slovenia, croatia, hungary, czech rep.) set to 0% because after woytila/ratzinger there will be no more german or cee pope for a while.