Sonntag, 10. März 2013

Probability of tradition-friendly Pope calculated

METHOD: I did the following. I took the odds for each Cardinal being elected pope from (March 9,18:30 CET), cleaned out those who are not Cardinal-Electors (quite surprising how many had to be cleaned out). For those Cardinals where paddypower did not give a probability I assumed 1/115. Then I set the probabilities for all German speaking Cardinal-Electors to 0%, and gave an age bonus to all Cardinal-Electors below 80 doubling the probability of the youngest (53 years of age, Cardinal Cleemis, India) and then a sliding scale to no increase in probability for the oldest (Card. Severino Poletto). All those probabilities where then re-normalized to a total of 100%.

TOP 20 Papal Probabilities (source:, 9.3.2013)
Cardinal Country Probability 
Angelo Scola Italy 20.17%
Peter Turkson Ghana 10.09%
Tarcisio Bertone Italy 8.07%
Odilo Scherer Brazil 5.04%
Marc Ouellet Canada 4.03%
Gianfranco Ravasi Italy 3.36%
Péter Erdő Hungary 2.24%
Luis Antonio Tagle Philippines 2.02%
Timothy M. Dolan United States 2.02%
Leonardo Sandri Argentina 2.02%
Angelo Bagnasco Italy 2.02%
Philippe Barbarin France 1.22%
Seán Patrick O'Malley United States 1.22%
Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga Honduras 1.22%
Wilfrid Napier South Africa 1.22%
Mauro Piacenza Italy 1.01%
Jorge Bergoglio Argentina 0.81%
Antonio Cañizares Llovera Spain 0.61%
Béchara Boutros Raï Lebanon 0.61%
Malcolm Ranjith Sri Lanka 0.50%

Probability of Tradition-Friendly Pope (=30.9 %)
Row Labels Sum of P norm
no 69.1%
yes 30.9%
Grand Total 100.0%
Method: I used the list of Cardinal-Electors who have celebrated a Traditional Latin Mass (source: Catholic Church Conservation Blog) as an indication of Tradition-Friendliness and applied that to the probabilities derived as described before.