METHOD: I did the following. I took the odds for each Cardinal being elected pope from paddypower.com (March 9,18:30 CET), cleaned out those who are not Cardinal-Electors (quite surprising how many had to be cleaned out). For those Cardinals where paddypower did not give a probability I assumed 1/115. Then I set the probabilities for all German speaking Cardinal-Electors to 0%, and gave an age bonus to all Cardinal-Electors below 80 doubling the probability of the youngest (53 years of age, Cardinal Cleemis, India) and then a sliding scale to no increase in probability for the oldest (Card. Severino Poletto). All those probabilities where then re-normalized to a total of 100%.
RESULTS:
| TOP 20 Papal Probabilities (source: centurioweblog.blogspot.com, 9.3.2013) |
|
|
|
| Cardinal |
Country |
Probability |
| Angelo Scola |
Italy |
20.17% |
| Peter Turkson |
Ghana |
10.09% |
| Tarcisio
Bertone |
Italy |
8.07% |
| Odilo Scherer |
Brazil |
5.04% |
| Marc Ouellet |
Canada |
4.03% |
| Gianfranco
Ravasi |
Italy |
3.36% |
| Péter Erdő |
Hungary |
2.24% |
| Luis Antonio
Tagle |
Philippines |
2.02% |
| Timothy M.
Dolan |
United States |
2.02% |
| Leonardo
Sandri |
Argentina |
2.02% |
| Angelo
Bagnasco |
Italy |
2.02% |
| Philippe
Barbarin |
France |
1.22% |
| Seán Patrick
O'Malley |
United States |
1.22% |
| Óscar
Rodríguez Maradiaga |
Honduras |
1.22% |
| Wilfrid Napier |
South Africa |
1.22% |
| Mauro Piacenza |
Italy |
1.01% |
| Jorge
Bergoglio |
Argentina |
0.81% |
| Antonio
Cañizares Llovera |
Spain |
0.61% |
| Béchara
Boutros Raï |
Lebanon |
0.61% |
| Malcolm
Ranjith |
Sri Lanka |
0.50% |
| Probability of Tradition-Friendly Pope (=30.9 %) |
|
|
|
| Row
Labels |
Sum of P norm |
|
| no |
69.1% |
|
| yes |
30.9% |
|
| Grand Total |
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
Method: I used the list of Cardinal-Electors who have celebrated a Traditional Latin Mass (source: Catholic Church Conservation Blog) as an indication of Tradition-Friendliness and applied that to the probabilities derived as described before.
