Bold prediction and updated probabilities

My current prediction for the conclave: an early run-off between Scherer and Scola, both get burned in the process and Cardinals realize they both don't have much charism. After that, strong candidates with deep faith suddenly emerge: Bagnasco, O'Malley and Burke. One of those three, most likely O'Malley (10% currently) is elected the 265th successor to St. Peter.